Like him or loathe him (and there does seem to be a large majority of the latter, even among people who voted for him!) Donald Trump is going to loom large in all our lives over the next 4 years or so as he starts his 2nd stint as President of the United States in a couple of months time.
He is certainly a larger than life presence, but how will his Presidency affect the UK and Northern Ireland in particular? On the positive side we can say that Trump has professed his love for the UK, and particularly for Scotland, on many occasions. He also has an excellent relationship with the MP for Clacton Nigel Farage, although it is fair to say he is not so friendly with our Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs David Lammy, who said some less than complimentary words about him before his re-election!
The Imposition Of Tariffs On Foreign Imports
One big issue for us is his liking for imposing tariffs on foreign imports coming into the United States. He has talked about this on many occasions and if he does go ahead with this policy it could certainly seriously hamper trade between the UK and the US.
To be clear on how these tariffs would work, they are a tax on trade, and they would be applied to goods as they entered the United States. The tariff charge is paid by the domestic company that imports the goods, in this case the US company, and not the exporter itself. However the US company may decide that paying the tariff will make the trade less profitable and so pull the plug on importing the goods.
Trump has talked about adding tariffs of up to 60% on goods from China and of at least 10% on goods from other countries. However what he often says at rallies and to his followers is one thing and what his actual policies become can be another thing entirely. We shall have to wait and see on this one, but if he does impose tariffs it could very well harm trade between the US and Northern Ireland.
Another big issue could be his stated intention of stopping the war in the Ukraine, which could well translate into conceding territory in the country to Russia. Europe are very much against such a policy and so may well have to start upping the amount of support they give to Ukraine in order that they can continue to defend itself against Putin. This could turn into a significant extra financial burden to the UK, which would again impact on us here too.
An Increasingly Uncertain World
There are many other points to consider about the upcoming Trump presidency and how it could affect the UK. Will it mean an increasingly uncertain world and world order, which is always bad for economies across the world? Will the US become more of an isolationist country under his rule? Will Europe decide to become more independent of the US and strike out on their own path more?
There are many imponderables. One thing we know is that it will not be dull, although we may long for a bit of mundanity in a few months time!
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