General

CBI Northern Ireland Director Angela McGowan has called for confidence building measures to be put in place in a bid to get the business community back on its feet. She firmly believes that businesses should put safety of their customers at the top of their priority list to build back that confidence, and that the Northern Ireland Executive support employers so that they can negotiate the next few months as smoothly as possible, retaining staff and growing back their businesses.

Six Measures To Aid Recovery

Writing in the Irish News the CBI Director identifies 6 measures which she would like to see taken to aid recovery from the pandemic. She writes:

“First as we embark on the mid-summer break, we need urgent clarity on the Executive’s position on working from home, giving offices times to properly prepare. Leadership from our policy-makers on this issue is essential.

“Second, reviewing self-isolation rules, along with an increase in the flexibility within the testing system itself. This can combine to reduce the impact of staff shortages, which are already hindering Northern Irish businesses’ ability to trade their way to recovery – particular for firms in hospitality.

“We’ve all seen the raft of pingdemic headlines coming out of England. Regrettably the UK Government’s current approach to self-isolation there is closing down the economy rather than opening it up – surely the opposite of what politicians intended. Businesses based in England have exhausted their contingency plans when it comes to addressing staff shortages and are at risk of grinding to a halt in the next few weeks.

The Executive Need To Act To Change Self Isolation Guidance

“The Northern Irish Executive has a window of opportunity to reduce the impact of such issues. They must take it and promptly confirm that those who have been double-vaccinated and the covid-recovered no longer need to self-isolate if not infectious and introduce a test and release scheme. We sincerely cannot afford mass self-isolation in Northern Ireland’s workforce when staff shortages were already acute.

“Third, and unsurprisingly, we believe that the Executive must also spell out a future vision for workplace testing, which should include funding, to support a pragmatic approach to self-isolation.

“Number four – businesses, especially SMEs, will need guidance on what they must do right now. Firms will naturally do all they can to keep employees and customers safe and know consultation with staff will be a key tool. But there can be no grey areas in the expectations upon firms, which means any health and safety rules, risk assessments and potential for inadvertent discrimination must be clearly and rapidly communicated.

Assessing Risks Within The Work Environment

“Fifth is support for firms to implement any measures required to cut risks. The HSENI must help businesses to understand how to assess risks within their own working environment, as well as the impact of measures like improved ventilation and enhanced cleaning.

“Finally, it is incumbent upon businesses to share examples of good practice, and to be open to that learning. Firms going the extra mile to maintain testing or implement safety measures will ensure workers and customers can engage with confidence.”

Angela believes that it is only when consumers become confident in traveling around, going shopping and eating out that the hospitality sector will truly begin to recover, so everything must be done to instill that confidence into the public. There is certainly some very good advice there which we can all take on board as we move forward.

According to reports many business owners in Northern Ireland are saying that the use of the StopCOVID contact tracing app is forcing them to run a limited service, or close for short periods, just when they need to get back on the road to recovery.

Pinged By The Contact Tracing App

If someone gets pinged by this contact tracing app it means that they have been in close contact with someone who has tested positive for Covid-19 and so they must self-isolate for 10 days. The problem for businesses is that the success of the app in identifying contact with someone who has tested positive has grown so much that businesses are having to close down whilst their staff self-isolate on a regular basis, which is causing havoc, particularly for such as the hospitality sector.

No Dates For Self-Isolation Rules To Change

Speaking to BBC News NI, Daniel Donnelly, from the Federation of Small Businesses Northern Ireland, said about this issue:

“It’s been a huge issue in recent weeks,” he told BBC News NI.

“Staff shortages have been a problem for a number of reasons, with tightening immigration rules after Brexit, we have some sectors particularly affected by lockdown where people have then found other employment while those sectors have been closed and the pingdemic has amplified that.

“We have no dates here in Northern Ireland in terms of when those self-isolation rules would change. So we would call on the executive to have look at this to see if policy can be changed.

“Self-isolation has been an important tool in dealing with the virus, but we have moved on in terms of being in a different place.”

Making A Distinction For The Double Vaccinated

Mr Donnelly added: “If we look at what we’re doing for travel, and looking at the amber list travellers, we are making a distinction between those who are double vaccinated who don’t have to self-isolate if they have a day 2 PCR test, so we think that [Stormont should] apply that principle to business.

“We have the protection of the vaccination, more people are becoming double vaccinated. If we have a test as well, we could potentially release more workers into the workforce and shorten the period of self-isolation.

“That’s good for the worker, in terms of not losing income, and it’s good for [businesses] that can stay open and continue to serve the community.”

Surely it makes sense to try to do all we can to keep businesses open permanently after the horrendous last 18 months they have had. So instead of having to self-isolate if coming into contact with someone who has tested positive, it makes sense if vaccinated workers can have a regular PCR test so that they can carry on working if they test negative. The sooner this can be implemented the better for all concerned.

We hope that the following is a blip rather than a worrying trend as retail saw a steep drop in footfall last week in what is traditionally one of the busier weeks in the calendar year. In fact the drop in Northern Ireland was the biggest recorded across the UK, leading to concerns that if this continues it could have a huge impact on our local economies.

Statistics Show Sharp Decrease

Statistics from retail research company Springboard show that between the 11th of July and the 17th of July there was a decrease in footfall of 7.4% compared to the previous week. To put that into perspective during this period the UK as a whole showed an increase of 0.9% in footfall. Also if you look at the stats on a year by year basis, footfall in Northern Ireland was up by just 16.2% compared to the same time last year, the lowest increase across the UK.

There Are Some Glimmers Of Hope

But you can find some glimmers of hope in the statistics thankfully. If you compare the footfall with the pre-pandemic era in 2019 (how long ago does that feel right now?!) you can see that footfall here is down by 21.2% which actually makes it the second best performing area in the UK, only very narrowly beaten by the south west of England. There is also a belief that footfall will show a very sharp increase this week as the UK celebrates so-called Freedom Day, where many of the restrictions on mask wearing, social distancing and gatherings have been lifted.

It is possible that the extremely hot weather we have had over the last few days could have had an impact on footfall in our town centres, with people preferring to be relaxing away from the busy streets, but the hot weather has been right across the UK, so maybe that is not such a valid reason. Sometimes there are just blips which are solely down to the vagaries of human behaviour so maybe this is just one of those. We will certainly find out if this is so in the coming weeks.

Increased Infection Rate Likely To Make Shoppers More Cautious

Diane Wehrle, insights director at Springboard, is quoted in the Belfast Telegraph on the decrease in footfall, saying:

“Despite the removal of Covid restrictions, the recently increased infection rate is likely to make some shoppers more cautious about venturing out into what could be busy shopping environments.

“Additionally, many workers have not yet returned to their offices and are unlikely to do so full time, which particularly impacts larger towns and cities where the volumes of footfall are greatest.”

Hospitality Ulster have launched stinging criticisms that the hospitality sector is being ignored, as the industry tries to get back on its feet after a terrible year which has led to a swathe of businesses being liquidated and the loss of many, many jobs.

Northern Ireland Executive Not Moving Swiftly Enough

They believe that the Northern Ireland Executive is not moving swiftly enough to help out hospitality. They see that the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy in London have published a 22 point plan to aid the sector in its recovery from the effects of the pandemic, but they don`t see the same commitment here in Northern Ireland to help these businesses which are such a vital part of our economy.

Slow Progress In Lifting Restrictions

Chief Executive of Hospitality Ulster Colin Neill is quoted in an article on the Business Live website, saying:

“The slow progress in the lifting of restrictions have created a situation that allows the majority of the sector to be open, or given the choice to open, but does not allow for normal trading and therefore damaging the long term sustainability of many businesses who are struggling to break even,” he said.

“Whilst our counterparts in GB are thinking about the overall transition from recovery to resilience, we here are left looking to our devolved government for direction and support.

Considered Recovery Plan Proposal

“Some months ago Hospitality Ulster brought forward a considered recovery plan, developed alongside hospitality industry leaders which detailed a range of key immediate and longer term interventions required by the Northern Ireland Executive and the Westminster Government in anticipation of emerging from the worst moments of the pandemic.

“The work has all been done, we mapped out the policy priorities and the economic levers that need to be pulled.

“We call on the Government to incorporate our plan into a much needed Executive backed future hospitality strategy for Northern Ireland.

“We need a proper, dedicated, government strategy for Northern Ireland, otherwise we will continue with a piecemeal approach.”

It is very easy for businesses in the hospitality industry to fold through a variety of reasons, but much more difficult to re-open them, so it is imperative that help is given to them which will allow them to survive these difficult trading conditions and to prosper in the near future. A thriving hospitality sector is good for the businesses involved, the high street and all of us as consumers.

A recent survey by Deloitte, the UK CFO Survey Q2 2021, shows that chief financial offers at some of the biggest businesses in the UK are looking to increase their capital expenditure over the coming months. And over three quarters of the CFO`s in the survey said that they expected to hire more staff through the coming 12 months.

Positive News For The Year Ahead

This is all very positive news for the year ahead and could be a sign that the economic recovery after the pandemic could move at quite a pace, leading to more jobs being created.

The survey also found that around 40% of the CFO`s involved said that their company was looking to expand into new markets as they searched out for new products and new services to increase their output and range. Growth via acquisition was another area that many companies were making a priority as they moved forward.

There were also claims by a high percentage of the CFO`s that demand for their products or services had already reached pre-pandemic levels, which is an astonishing set of circumstances given what we have been through over the last 12 months or so.

Years Of Normal Growth Compressed Into A Few Months

Speaking about the survey, Ian Stewart, chief economist at Deloitte, is quoted as saying in an article on the Scotsman website:

“With the economy reopening, CFOs’ perceptions of external uncertainty have dropped below the average of the last five years, and businesses have tacked away from the defensive strategies that helped them through the downturn.”

`He also said it is likely that there will be “years of normal growth compressed into just a few months”, adding: “Indeed, eight in ten CFOs believe that productivity will run higher in the wake of the pandemic. That offers the hope of a more comprehensive recovery than after the global financial crisis.”

Additionally, while Brexit dropped down the risk list, the pandemic remains “by a slim margin” the biggest concern for CFOs, with rising inflation and climate change also in the top three.`

Uncertainty Can Still Be A Stumbling Block

All the above is not to say that we are completely out of the woods yet and everything in the garden is rosy. There are still many businesses of all sizes struggling to stay afloat and the uncertainty over how Brexit is going to pan out, along with the fears over another possible Covid-19 wave emanating from another strain of the virus, is not helping them to recover. But this flow of positivity from many of these large businesses is definitely a breath of fresh air.

There is no doubt that the government schemes that have provided funding to businesses in Northern Ireland during the pandemic have been crucial. Without this funding many many more companies would have gone into administration never to return, the schemes have saved businesses and they have saved jobs.

No Choice But To Provide Funding

The government really had no choice but to provide the money to keep businesses afloat, as if they had not done so it would have been catastrophic both economically and socially for the fabric of society.

To show the level of aid provided here is data from the British Business Bank which was published in an article on the Irish News website:

`CLOSE to 45,000 businesses in Northern Ireland benefited from more than £2 billion of funding under the UK government’s two biggest coronavirus loan schemes, new figures show.

`Data from the British Business Bank revealed that 2,438 firms borrowed £800 million from the Coronavirus Business Interruption Loan Scheme (CBILS), which provided loans, overdrafts, invoice finance and asset finance of up to £5m to businesses with a turnover less than £45m.

`And 42,544 companies tapped into the Bounce Back Loan Scheme (BBLS), securing loans worth nearly £1.3 billion. It provides a six-year term loan from £2,000 up to 25 per cent of a business’ turnover, with a limit of £50,000.

Future Fund Supporting Businesses

`The British Business Bank also published data on how the ‘Future Fund’ has supported businesses during the pandemic.

`Some 1,190 companies across the UK have had their applications completed to access £1.14 billion worth of convertible loan agreements.

`Among them, 13 businesses in Northern Ireland accessed £11.6m worth of convertible loan agreements.

Among them, 13 businesses in Northern Ireland accessed £11.6m worth of convertible loan agreements.

`In the UK as a whole, banks funnelled more than £79 billion in government-backed loans to companies trying to stay afloat, including £4.2 billion in the final days of three loan schemes before the June 30 expiry.

Accessing All The Funding Available

If you own or manage a business here in Northern Ireland we hope that you have taken advantage of all the funding schemes and grants that have been available to your particular business, and that continue to support you. It is vital that all the help available is taken up so that your business can stay solvent and string as we look to better times ahead in the not too distant future.

If your business needs help in finding and securing funding, or for any accountancy related issue, please give our offices a call on 028 3752 2909.