Positive Economic Survey Results But Concerns Over Trading Turbulence Ahead For NI

The latest quarterly economic survey (QES) published by NI Chamber and BDO NI shows some very positive signs for Northern Ireland. In particular the countries export performance was very strong and also the manufacturing and service sectors were in very good shape in the first quarter of 2025.

All great news, however there are real concerns over the effects that rising labour costs, inflation and taxes will begin to have on businesses here, along with what new moves President Donald Trump may initiate in the very near future in regard to tariffs. Will the tariffs he has so far introduced stay for at least the medium term, or will they be removed or maybe increased. As President Trump probably has no idea himself until he gets out of bed in the morning it is impossible to predict what will happen next, which all adds up to more uncertainty for NI businesses.

With this in mind the NI Chamber is calling on the UK government, along with the Stormont Executive, to give more support to businesses and work in partnership with them to ensure the best possible trading conditions going forward.

The Trading Environment Can Quickly Change

In an article on the Business Eye website, NI Chamber Chief Executive Suzanne Wylie is quoted on this subject along with the latest survey results, saying:

“These results correlate strongly with the most recent NI Composite Index, which indicated that Northern Ireland saw economic growth in 2024. And whilst it is encouraging to report a relatively positive performance during Q1, is an illustration of how quickly the trading environment can change, the past week has delivered big changes which present a real and substantial test for NI businesses.  The Q1 results were positive in many respects – what matters now is how we build on that momentum in the immediate-term.

“Whilst it remains a complex picture, we know that US tariffs will have ramifications for businesses in Northern Ireland. In response, our politicians must be both courageous and strategic, working in partnership with businesses to help navigate the uncertainty ahead.

“This is a time for calm heads and careful, constructive assessment. In anticipation of an escalation of US tariffs, NI Chamber has been actively engaging with policymakers in Westminster, Brussels, Stormont and Dublin since January. In all of that, our aim has, and will continue to be, to ensure that Northern Ireland and its unique circumstances are adequately considered as both the UK and EU prepare to respond. Given the complexities involved, we have called on the UK government to stand up a team of experts to support our businesses through this challenge.

“The global Chamber network is unique and provides an important framework to support local businesses with trade issues, market intelligence and introductions to business communities and ecosystems across the globe.

“NI Chamber has been actively investing in strategic partnerships with Chambers of Commerce in our main markets of Great Britain, Ireland and the US over the past year to support our business through these challenging times for global trade.”

NI Leading The Way Across The UK In Terms Of Business Confidence

And in the same article Brian Murphy, Managing Partner at BDO NI, is quoted as saying:

“These findings are deeply encouraging, with local businesses performing positively. Northern Ireland is leading the way across the UK in terms of business confidence, with more firms confident about delivering stronger turnovers in 2025, and expecting to increase their profitability.

“As we seek to deliver on this positivity, we need government to work with us. Rather than see the business community as another source ripe for further taxation, the UK government must realise that our pockets are not bottomless. We ask that the Government, and the NI Executive, work in cooperation with business to tackle the issues that are holding us back from investing, exporting and recruiting more.”