Employment At Record High But Job Growth May Be Stalling

The latest figures from the Quarterly Employment Survey (QES) shows employment running at a record high in Northern Ireland, which is great news for all. However other figures gleaned from HMRC payroll data seem to suggest that job growth has slowed right down since the summer.

9,000 More Jobs Than The Same Time Last Year

Here is a rundown of this latest data, as copied from an article by John Campbell on the BBC News website. The article reads:

‘The Quarterly Employment Survey (QES) suggests there were 831,780 employee jobs in September, an increase of more than 9,000 from the same time last year.

‘The QES surveys about 6,000 companies, covering all employers with 25 or more employees and all public sector employers.

‘It found that over the year and during the third quarter there was employment growth in all major sectors of the economy.

‘Over the year most job growth was in services and construction with those sectors adding around 5,000 and 3,000 jobs respectively.

‘Manufacturing added 330 jobs with an additional 450 jobs on other industry sectors.

‘A separate measurement using HMRC payroll data suggests that job growth may have stalled since the summer.

‘It shows that between January and July payrolled jobs increased from 799,000 to just over 806,000 while between July and November there has effectively been no growth.’

NI Economy Grown By Just 1.1% This Year

In further news the Danske Bank have cautioned that they only expect the NI economy to have grown by around 1.1% this year, however this is tempered by their projections for the economy to grow up to 1.4% in 2025. Here is what Conor Lambe, Chief Economist & Head of Strategy at Danske Bank, said about the growth rate, as quoted from the same article on the BBC News website:

“Looking forward into 2025, we expect the pace of growth to increase as closer to target rates of inflation and continued loosening of monetary policy provide some support to consumer expenditure.

“The measures announced in the Budget are also likely to lead to higher levels of government spending.

“However, despite expectations of continued easing, Bank of England Bank Rate is still expected to remain relatively high and the increase in tax announced within the Budget is also likely to lead to challenges for businesses.”

Yes there will definitely be challenges for businesses next year but we are certainly in a better position economically than for quite a few years, so let us look on the bright side to a more prosperous 2025.