Is Northern Ireland Already In Recession?

A senior economist has stated that the economy in Northern Ireland may already be in recession even before Chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s Autumn Statement is unveiled this week, which we already know is going to spell bad news all round. The Autumn Statement on Thursday will in all probability bring in further tax hikes, along with cuts in public spending, which will further damage the public’s ability to spend and also further damage business confidence. It is a double whammy that we could well do without right now.

Grounds For Deducing The Local, Regional Economy Is Already In Recession

Senior economist at Ulster University’s business school Dr Esmond Birnie, is quoted in an article on the Belfast Newsletter website, saying that the latest figures on GDP from the Office for National Statistics “give some ground for deducing that the local, regional economy is already in recession”.

Dr Birnie added: “It can also be noted that during April-June Northern Ireland’s growth performance was worse than the UK average – notwithstanding the now often made claims, usually poorly supported by evidence, that in recent times the local economy has been out-performing the rest of the UK, and that this has something to do with continued (Protocol) access to the EU Single Market, etcetera.”

We Are All Going To Have To Get Used To Paying More Tax

The new Chancellor Jeremy Hunt has intimated on a number of occasions that we are all going to have to get used to paying more tax in order to fill the black hole of £60 billion which seems to have been created in no small part by the previous Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng’s emergency budget. The Prime Minister is looking to stabilise the economy in an effort to stem the rampant inflation that has caused such concern and also to ensure the Conservatives regain the trust of the finance industry and the Bank of England. But by doing so he is going to introduce public spending cuts and certain tax rises which are going to be extremely unpopular with both the public and businesses.

It will be interesting to see if this government will be able to survive bringing in such measures, as a return to the austerity years is the last thing that most people want to contemplate after living through the Covid pandemic. Businesses are still working to get back on their feet and grow to their former levels, but the present economic and political situation is not helping them one bit.